Climate change realities in the Pacific

Sandra Duong is a master student at Stockholm University and has been granted a Minor Field Study scholarship from the department of Human Geography. She is writing her master thesis on climate change impacts in the low-lying atoll country Kiribati and the use of migration as an adaptation strategy.

I have spent the recent two months in Kiribati and I feel great apprehension about leaving this country and especially the amazing people that I have met. During this short period of time I have witnessed some stresses that climate-related impacts put on this least developing country.

During my second week in Kiribati I got infected with chikungya, a vector borne disease that caused an outbreak of an ongoing epidemic that started in 2014. Rising temperatures and increased precipitation can aggravate the spread of vector borne diseases and cause epidemics.

The main source of freshwater in atoll countries is well water. Sea level rise and inundation cause salinization and pollution of the well water. Eventually the water can become unsuitable to use for drinking, sanitation, and growing crops. While where I stayed you don’t drink the well water, you could still tell that the quality was not good because my eyes got irritated and dry and I developed skin irritations as well. It became too unbearable so I had to start have my showers with rainwater instead.

On February, 19 a king tide hit the capital South Tarawa. It measured up to 2,3 m and caused flooding 200 m in-shore which resulted in damages to houses and power cuts. The densely populated islet Betio was most affected and the hospital was completely flooded. Many of the staff left and relatives came to evacuate the patients. However, not everyone had the possibility to leave and many were still in great need of care. I spoke to a young mother whose four months year old baby had been admitted for pneumonia and the baby’s condition was critical. The young mother did not know what to do.

King tide washing over the sea wall

Patients at the Betio hospital waiting to be picked up by their relatives

And then, last month, Cyclone Pam occurred. For three days straight the sky was dark and we experienced constant rain and storm. Luckily, no fatalities were recorded. The biggest destruction happened to the causeway that connects Betio to the rest of South Tarawa. Large parts of the sea wall were destroyed and parts of the causeway broke apart. Due to safety no vehicles were allowed to pass the causeway for days. Betio is the port where all shipping comes in and petrol quickly ran out in rest of South Tarawa. Traffic stopped and many missed out on work and school during those days.

The aftermaths of the indirect effects from Cyclone Pam

The cyclone did not run directly across Kiribati which was fortunate. While my thoughts go out to Vanuatu, there is a frightening realization of that Kiribati is not resilient enough to survive a cyclone.

The low development in Kiribati makes it extremely vulnerable to environmental disasters. Kiribati is highly dependent on its land, imports, remittances and foreign aid. Traditionally people live a subsistence lifestyle and they rely on their land for their staple foods coconuts, breadfruit, and bwaibwai (a kind of taro) and the ocean for fish. In recent years cash income has become more important for survival due to increasing urban migration, loss of land and dying crops. Floods and damages to infrastructure have become part of daily life, even for me during this short stay, and the people of Kiribati rise up, rebuild their houses, replace their losses and take every day as it comes.

Precipitation reporting of Swedish Agroholdings

I have been studying the so-called Swedish agroholdings, and hope to have an article out this year about them. One thing – that won’t be in the paper –that I noticed and want to comment on is how they report on the impact of precipitation on crop yields. Naturally of course precipitation is one of the main factors affecting crop yields, but in dry or drought years, the companies tend to simply report that particular season’s deviation from monthly precipitation averages over a seven or ten year period. See Black Earth Farming’s Q4 Results p2, or Trigon Agri’s 1H Results from 2010, p 10, for examples. This is all fine and good, but it doesn’t address the question of how frequently such deviations from the average occur. The climate in the Eurasian steppe is quite variable, and how frequently droughts occur and how long they last would seem to be important information to know. Also, seven or ten years is simply too short a period to be talking about climate.

For this purpose, I have been looking at the Standard Precipitation Index (SPI), which is what the US government uses to asses drought conditions in the US (See the website of the US National Drought Mitigation Center). Basically the SPI is a measure of meteorological drought, only taking rainfall into account. (An important distinction: “agricultural drought,” for example, would take into account soil moisture). Here is a definition of SPI from this website: “The SPI was formulated by Tom Mckee, Nolan Doesken and John Kleist of the Colorado Climate Center in 1993. The purpose is to assign a single numeric value to the precipitation which can be compared across regions with markedly different climates. Technically, the SPI is the number of standard deviations that the observed value would deviate from the long-term mean, for a normally distributed random variable. Since precipitation is not normally distributed, a transformation is first applied so that the transformed precipitation values follow a normal distribution. The Standardized Precipitation Index was designed to explicitly express the fact that it is possible to simultaneously experience wet conditions on one or more time scales, and dry conditions at other time scales, often a difficult concept to convey in simple terms to decision-makers. Consequently, a separate SPI value is calculated for a selection of time scales, covering the last 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 15, 18, 24, 30, 36, 48, 60, and 72 months, and ending on the last day of the latest month.”

Basically to summarize, the SPI provides a score for the rain anomaly for each user-defined period against the longer record for that period.

According to the US classification scheme, an SPI of around -1 signifies moderate drought conditions, while an SPI of -1.3 to -1.5 indicates severe drought conditions. For more on the classification of SPI values, look at this website, which compares SPI with different drought indices. I do not know the degree to which this classification scheme would be appropriate for Russian conditions. For more on how to interpret SPI values look at this site.

Here is the 3 month SPI for a weather station in Kursk, an oblast in western Russia where the Swedish listed company Black Earth Farming operates.  What this means is that for each month, the precipitation amount for the three month period ending in that month is measured against the longer climate record. Though only 2013 and 2014 are shown here, the calculations are based on a climate record going back to 1974. So you can say that the fall of 2014 in Kursk was indeed very dry in terms of the longer climate record, though late Spring (June) had favorable conditions. I say "indeed" because BEF has called the fall weather in their operational area, which includes Kursk, unusual.

(By the way, I used the SPI-app available at the web-site of the US National Drought Mitigation Center to make the SPI calculations. The Kursk weather station data comes from this web-site, which I have noticed in other contexts appears to be the same data as the climate data available on the FAO web-site, though not in the case of Kursk where the website had more data than FAO. Below I also use precipitation data from a weather station in Voronezh and that data comes from the Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN) Version 2. The web-site source for Kursk compiles monthly values based on daily precipitation, and in some cases some daily values were missing. In those cases I just used the provisional monthly precipitation sum. Also in some cases GHCN lacked values for Voronezh, and where possible I filled in those values using data on Voronezh from the same web-site. Sub-optimal but this is just a blog.)

This next graph shows the potential usefulness of SPI. It shows the average of the 3-month SPI for the month of August between 2007 and 2014 for a weather station in Kursk and one in Voronezh (the SPI for the two stations are averaged together) plotted against Black Earth Farming’s Corn (Maize) yield for the same years. (Voronezh is another oblast where Black Earth Farming (BEF) is active). Note that BEF also farms in the neighboring oblasts of Lipetsk and Tambov, but I could not find rain data for weather stations in those oblasts going up to 2014, so I had to make do with what I had. In any case a pretty neat correlation resulted. I have modeled the corn yield and SPI relationship using a 2nd order polynomial based on the assumption (perhaps mistaken?) that, after a certain amount, there are diminishing returns to rain. I tried the same for wheat and 3 and 6 month SPI for June. If you eliminate 2012, you also get a good result here. A case can be made for eliminating 2012 because BEF themselves, when explaining their disappointing 2012 harvest, seemed to put that blame on odd temperature dynamics, i.e. an unusually late spring, combined with sudden increases in temperature resulting in wheat going through its growth stages really fast at the same time that there were 3 weeks with no rain in May (2012) (See their 2Q report 2012, p. 2). Under such circumstances SPI will be less successful in correlating with yield.

A few words of caution here. While one would expect that there would be good correlations with precipitation anomalies and crop yield, these two tables can just be flukes. The R2s are just too good, and there are not a lot of data points. I have however gone back and double-checked various parts of the data processing I have done. I also checked how well SPI predicts corn and wheat yields for Trigon in Kharkiv and Kirovgrad, and in some cases got good results, and in some cases not so good results. With respect to wheat, you can improve the not so good results by some tinkering based on reasonable assumptions. The only thing that cannot be improved by tinkering with the data is the relationship between Trigon corn yield and SPI in Kirovgrad.

In general, I can say, for obvious reasons, sometimes 3 Month SPI is a better predictor of yield and sometimes 6 Month SPI is. This is the advantage of SPI. There can be a 3 month dry period in a 6 month period that is otherwise considered wet.

In the end, there are not enough data points to base a proper analysis on. I’m just playing around with data and this is what I get. As I’ve said before, this is just a blog. Also, I am no expert in precipitation or meteorology. You can see this as me putting up my notes on this blog for other people to react to if they feel like it.

I do however think that these companies should consider using SPI to report on precipitation in their operational areas.

Time running out for EcoEnergy?

Has the Swedish-financed ethanol/sugar project in Bagamoyo, Tanzania, finally reached its critical moment?

Sida has declared that it will withdraw its support to the project if the private company EcoEnergy is not able to find capital for its intended investments before 30 April, which should mean that the project turns bankrupt. If on the other hand EcoEnergy is able to raise private capital to finance its operations Sida guarantees bank loans of 600 million SEK.

Meanwhile the Swedish Economic Crime Authority is looking into how the predecessor of EcoEnergy, Sekab company owned by three municipal energy companies in northern Sweden, sold their subsidiary companies in Tanzania to the owner of EcoEnergy for the symbolic sum of 400 SEK.

The details of the perplexing story of how three municipalities in north Sweden came to invest 170 million SEK in growing sugar cane outside Bagamoyo, has been a serial story in newspapers in northern Sweden and also covered in documentary films. Swedish and Tanzanian researchers as well as environmental NGOs have studied the project. I visited the project site in 2008 and wrote about the discrepancy between the management’s high-soaring plans for local development and participation and the scepticism and disappointments expressed by farmers and pastoralists in the area. There were great promises but the company’s activities on the ground left lots to be desired. Corresponding documentation came from the Rufiji area where Sekab also was active.

In April 2009 four researchers from the Stockholm Geography Departments (Annika Dahlberg, Karin Holmgren, Mats Widgren and myself) together with Tor Arve Benjaminsen and Ian Bryceson of the Norwegian University of Life Sciences and documentary film maker Lars Johansson wrote an opinion piece in Dagens Nyheter expressing our concerns about a number of issues regarding the environmental, social and developmental aspects. The proposed sugar cane plantations would push several thousands of small-scale farmers off their land. We used the word land-grabbing which at the time was not yet a household concept.

Over the years academics continued to rise critical questions about the project. The Swedish municipal energy companies eventually pulled out and fired the Sekab director who is the current owner of EcoEnergy. Surprisingly Sida stepped in with loan guarantees to EcoEnergy and has (until now?) retained faith in the project.

The most recent report on developments in Bagamoyo project comes from ActionAid and is available at

http://www.actionaid.org/sites/files/actionaid/take_action_-_stop_ecoenergys_land_grab_embargoed_report.pdf

ActionAid is organising an international petition in favour of the rights of the smallholders and pastoralist who will be evicted if the project is able to proceed with its plans. The petition can be signed at:

http://landfor.org/

Sekab and EcoEnergy have all along had high-level political support in Tanzania and this still continues as recently reported in Tanzanian news media:

http://www.ippmedia.com/frontend/index.php?l=78473

The prospects for EcoEnergy look bleak, as Sida now has decided to pull out if the company cannot raise capital for its investments before the end of April. But Sekab and EcoEnergy have been reported as insolvent a number of times before, and what the situation will be on 1 May remains to be seen.

New publication on Venezuela

This week an article was published in Spanish in the journal  Revista Latino-Americana de Geografia e Genero. The title of the article in English is

""Does the Revolution have a Peasant Face?" A case study on the active participation of women in an irrigation project in the Venezuelan Páramo". 

Abstract

In Venezuela, women’s participation in decision making processes has improved thanks to the Bolivarian revolution. While it has been shown that legislative changes have brought about achievements for women in urban areas, there are no similar studies done in rural zones. This article is a first attempt to fill this scientific gap. Qualitative data have been gathered with a focus on gender, in order to investigate women’s participation in the spatial organization of the economic and productive system of Mixteque, in the municipality of Rangel, in the state of Mérida, Venezuela. The results show that while women are mainly in charge in the municipal council, their participation is passive in decision makings related to the productive processes. The irrigation committee is indeed mainly composed by men, who consequently control agriculture, which is the most important economic activity in Mixteque. Our study also indicates that although patriarchal relations are changing in some families, at the community level there has been a reinforcement of the productive/reproductive work division between men and women, respectively. This article confirms that Venezuela is a unique case when it comes to the legislative impulse towards women’s participation and that gender equality has been improving. Nevertheless, it emerges, most importantly, that women farmers in the Venezuelan Andes are no different from their counterparts in Ecuador, Peru and Bolivia: none of them has direct access to water management decision making. Given its novelty within the discipline of geography in Venezuela, this research can help to illuminate how new organizational processes could – if they could – change gender roles in Venezuela.

Find the full article in Spanish here.

What is a furrow? Another idea.

I have just watched this video by IFAD where Pablo Tittonell, Professor and Chair of the Farming Systems Ecology Group at Wageningen University explains the advantage of conservation agriculture in enhancing food security for farmers in the Global South.

The short lecture, which could be even considered reinventing the wheel for those of us that study these processes on the field, I think is very illustrative and could be certainly used in teaching our students the challenges and the solutions that smallholders deal with on a everyday basis.

What however triggered me to bring our readership´s attention to this video is the use that Prof. Tittonell does of the word "furrow". According to him a furrow is not a water canal or channel but a rut where seeds are planted. His take on the term goes along the argument by Prof Widgren, earlier on this blog, that furrow should not be used to define irrigation canals in Africa as it doesn´t fit into the existing engineering terminology hence not opening up for international comparisons.